On election night, I had my TV, several news websites and the website of the election prediction model of Sheldon Jacobson and colleagues on (the website has been updated since), comparing the model’s predictions to the actual election results as the numbers were coming in… I had to sleep at some point, so, it ended abruptly (see the original entry).
It has been a while, but I wanted to write a quick update on how the model performed. You can find the details at the website but here’s a synopsis:
” Our model predicted 50 of the 51 states (including the District of Columbia).
The Strong Democrat Swing scenario was the closest to the actual results . . .
All of these states, except Indiana, were correctly predicted. . . From these results, Indiana was the most difficult state to predict, closely followed by Missouri. “
Yes, OR indeed won… Also, take a look at the cartogram, a map in which the sizes of states are rescaled according to their population, in Mike Trick’s blog entry.